By Thanos P Dokos
As counter-profileration is predicted to develop into the relevant point within the new nationwide safeguard coverage of the U.S., such activities will represent a critical part of each significant foreign clash within the first a long time of the 21st century. the most vital geostrategic phenomena of the earlier decade has been the intense diffusion of war-making functions from the built North to the constructing South. within the eyes of a few proliferant states, owning nuclear, organic and chemical (NBC) guns wouldn't simply upload to their neighborhood stature, yet may additionally supply an asymmetrical counter to the West’s monstrous superiority in traditional forces.
In the jap Mediterranean and the center East, a couple of international locations are assumed to own various degrees of NBC-weapons services. purposes for problem contain the truth that such guns were utilized in the prior; the region’s geographic proximity to Europe and the very important pursuits of the West (which is ready, lower than convinced conditions, to take advantage of strength to guard them); the multiplicity of conflicts and different protection difficulties; and the final instability within the sector (including the unfold of spiritual extremism).
This very important and well timed booklet assesses, intimately, the accuracy of predictions, and perceptions, a couple of attainable army hazard from the Southern Mediterranean (Muslim) international; and their effect on NATO’s political and army posture. Thanos P. Doxos provides an review of the Alliance’s ideas for facing the matter. This e-book represents a useful, topical source for researchers and coverage makers.
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Additional info for Countering the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: NATO and EU Options in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
Although this is the most plausible scenario, it is also proposed to examine another three – admittedly low probability – scenarios. In the second, Israel, a NWS, would be matched with an Arab state or Iran with a more primitive nuclear capability. It could be put in a broader context: a relatively advanced nuclear nation against one that is a more modest entrant. 45 According to the third scenario, Israel (advanced nuclear) would face defeat from an Arab conventional force. Finally, in the fourth scenario, two Middle East states other than Israel acquire nuclear weapons.
46 Some of the proposed measures can be implemented in the short term; others are medium or long term and in some cases conditional upon the successful implementation of the short-term ones. All those measures, however, would be important contributing factors in the avoidance of what Albert Wohlstetter described more than twenty-five years ago as, ‘life in a nuclear-armed crowd’. qxd 3 29/09/2007 2:27 PM Page 27 Assessing the proliferation threat Risks arising from nuclear proliferation This book deals with the proliferation of every type of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
The principal concern is Pakistan, because of its growing nuclear arsenal and a government under pressure. It has been argued that, while the international community’s worst fears with respect to Pakistan have not materialized so far, the possibility cannot be ignored of ‘nightmare scenarios in which extremist elements, perhaps with the support or assistance of sympathizers in the armed forces and intelligence services, come to power in Islamabad or gain control of some or all of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.