By Gumel A.B., et al. (eds.)
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Extra info for Mathematical Studies on Human Disease Dynamics: Emerging Paradigms and Challenges
At the peak of the postglacial climatic optimum (~6,000 YBP) temperature must have been roughly 2°C higher in midlatitude oceanic coasts, and a little bit lower in continental areas. In subtropical latitudes, the present arid areas enjoyed wetter conditions (humid period in the Sahara, as well as in the deserts of the Middle East up to Ragasthan). Evidence based on actual data supports the idea of a tendency towards synchronous shrinking of the arid belt at both flanks (Petit Maire, 1984). For this Holocene warm climate serving as an analogue for our future climate, it must be stressed that two boundary conditions were met 6,000 YBP : the presence of limited but not negligible permanent ice sheets in eastern Canada and the lack of man-triggered desertification processes.
A comparison between the results of different GCMs can only be performed effectively, if the data of all models are transferred to a reference grid system. This grid (4° lat. e. spatial and temporal filtering to remove small-scale fluctuations. For the spatial filtering a Gaussian filter is used, whereas for the temporal filtering a fourth order binominal filter is applied. For the interpretation of the co 2 sensitivity experiments it is necessary to determine whether the changes obtained are significant in a statistical sense.
Company, Dordrecht, Holland. 10. , saltzman, B. (Eds), 1984. Milankovitch and Climate. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht (Holland). 1. -31- 11. A. , 1977. Climates of Hunger, University of Wisconsin Press, Madison. 12. , 1975. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 101(428), pp. 193-202. 13. H. , 1977. A comparative study of the effects of albedo change on drought in the semi-arid regions. J. Atmos. Sci. 34, pp. 1366-1385. 14. CLIMAP, 1976.